This is a big question, and I don't know whether anyone has an answer to it. I'm raising it because I had a reason about a year ago (that I won't get into now) to think about the size and state of the market.
What has become of our sport, and where is it going? There's no question that the market is "mature" and either still in or nearing the end of its decline to a "long tail", small but steady state. Forty years ago the market for new boats was into its peak and still raging, but over the past fifteen or so it's contracted sharply. The big dog of the industry now only builds its fiberglass flagship - the H16 - and the rest of its cat product line is the far less demanding, more "casually recreational" rotomolded boats. What percentage of Hobie's business is still cats, and what is now their broad range of kayaks, would be very revealing (I haven't looked to see what fiberglass boats Hobie Europe is still building, but whatever they do they're probably not doing in big numbers either). Just about every new boat you see is now a Nacra instead of a Hobie, and with pretty steep price tags, esp. in North America where they're hit with transport costs and import duties. There are, and always will be, the small/specialty/boutique builders, and a used market in which boats will continue to get cheaper and cheaper as they get older, as it's unlikely prices will ever reverse the trend as "antiques". And Hobie alone put something like half a million boats out there over the years, so that used market will persist.
The nearest analog would seem to be windsurfers. They exploded as a huge fad in the late 70s and early 80s, thanks not only to their novelty, but also to relatively low cost, easy transportation, and low complexity that (arguably) reduced the demands on buyers in terms of knowledge and skill. And because (I suggest) they had a higher "fad factor" than cats, they peaked and died in the market faster (again, to a long tail consisting of a relatively small number of hardcores).
So this is a common thing and in no way unique to cats; many, if not most products have a market life cycle. I'm interested in "why". I even spoke to a marketing prof at the Uof Calgary and he referred me to a standard text in the field (Everett Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation), and though I ground through most of it (the case studies were interesting, but the rest was repetitive and boring as hell), it focused on the introduction and uptake of new products and techniques, and had nothing to say about the kind of life cycle decline I'm talking about.
That's about as far as I've gotten. Anyone else ever thought about this?
Edited by jonathan162 on Aug 09, 2021 - 08:41 PM.
Time and money ... mostly time.
I have no idea what you're trying to say about mature markets.
I think that sailing was more democratic in the past, before carbon and modern sail fabrics. Not because of innovation but because of how the market evolved, I guess. The vast majority of options on the market are competitive boats, not many options for recreational sailors, that’s why we get 20 year old boats instead of spending unreasonable amounts of money.
First up: bare with me - not sure about "boat economics':
A lot of this seems to have come about because of the great government push back in the late 80's and 90's to tax and regulate production of fiberglass boats among other markets, as I understand it. NACRA goes "off-shore" outside the U.S. for viability and Hobie adjusts to the dwindling market that has gotten more expensive. Doesn't help that all this starts occurring as the digital age heats up and people go on-line to the "newest thing" in droves.
I used to be into RC airplanes, since a kid, graduating finally to RC Jets. Same thing happened to that hobby, with government doing a huge stomp on it (didn't like 200+ mph "drones" flying around with 2 gallons of jet fuel I guess), plus people's attention went elsewhere, easier. The hobby essentially has died; still a few die-hards in it, but not like it was when there used to be contests with $50k in prize money.
Look at what happened during the "lock-downs" - people finally got fed up living lives strictly digitally and finally started a buying binge of boats, etc. to get outside. However, as my wife likes to point out - it takes an hour to set up, hour to take down; not instant fun. Lives are packed with demand, so we tend to think of every minute not being "productive" as wasted. An entire day spent fiddling and playing/sailing? Huh.
In our curent state, manufacturers have to market "easy, fun, fast and affordable". A used fiberglass cat is not necessarily that, though it can be affordable, fun and fast. If it needs repairs, there are fewer and fewer self-reliant craftsmen to help or buy and sail. A decent, new plastic catamaran is, what? $10k minimum? More like $15k+ for what you want. There's a lot else to play with demanding that kind of cash.
My daughter has a degree in economics - need to ask her if this is typical in all or many markets.
We don't have the number of youngsters coming into the sport. For youngsters there are many other attractive and easier hobbies from electronic tablets, to kiting, to Sea-Doo's.
So I would offer that the reduction in sailing is due to the increase in offerings from competition >>> we simply have more choices.
A good deal has to do with demographics. Canada is an aging population. Seniors simply don’t jump into new high energy activities such as windsurfing, or kiteboarding, which is even easier to transport than windsurfers.
For the most part, the younger folks drive these new fads.
High profile events, like the Olympics can be game changers. Kids see a home Country hero winning medals, (endorsements & face recognition follow), & they say, “I want to be that guy,(gal)”. The sport takes off. Think back to Wayne Wong, skinny onesies banging of the sides of moguls. A new generation comes of age, nobody skis like that anymore.
The biggest issue with Beachcats is storage. A huge percent of the population simply has no room to keep a Cat. Growing population, with other interests, means increased competition for valuable Cat friendly shoreline. Just look at older Countries, (Europe), sailing is almost exclusively confined to “clubs”.
Sailing, in various forms, will always be around, & may increase here if our energy prices get to European levels.
E C Hilliard
Nacra 5.7
Bombardier Invitation
Few to none available soft launch/landing areas for beach cats because they have to be maintained for a very few number of sailors, to the exclusion of swimmers who see a free beach with no lifeguards there to tell them what to do. State Wildlife Resource area concrete boat launches are just for powerboats on trailers, and marina staff don't understand the needs of beach cats or how they are launched. So much waterfront at lakes, estuaries, and beaches have been taken over by private development and the owners don't want sailboats landing on their property and hanging out. Cat sailing is hard to learn vs kayaking or paddle boarding, so it's hard to attract the younger generations who are too busy with social media and being ultra-productive with their time in a competitive workplace.
Not all factors involved in the decline of cat sailing has to do with a "mature" product. Like geepacks says, there are too many other activities that folks can do today and the percentage of the population interested in sailing gets smaller as a percentage of the total population. I also agree with sidecar ... in my early days of cat sailing, I could find a bunch of places to launch from. Today it is very limited and most are not cat friendly.
This issue is not specific to "mature products". I used to play competitive racquetball in the 80's and early 90s's. One used to fight tooth and nail to get court time and tournaments around the NE had hundreds of entries. Now, I am not sure I could find more than a few courts in a hundred mile radius. Except for a few hold out hot spots and a core of die hards, the sport seems to be all but dead. Sound familiar?
This is an interesting topic. I'm 71 and have been sailing for 40 years and I too have witnessed the decline in this sport. I don't get out that much anymore because of health reasons but when I do I'm usually the only small catamaran out there. I think part of it, as mentioned before, is lack of good access, a place where you can beach launch and park a trailer. Here on Sarasota Bay it's all private property, some homes have their own beach and a perfect set up for beach cat sailing but no one sails. I've been sailing this Bay for 20 years and there's only one Hobie 16 I know of behind someone's home. There's a sailing club here in town with several catamarans but they never go out, most have mold growing on them. But lack of access has to be only part of it. I say this because I was in San Diego a couple of weeks ago and played tourist and took a harbor cruise on San Diego Bay. I didn't see one beach cat. Cool air, bright sun and lots of wind. A perfect So Cal day. I went over to Mission Bay, one of my favorite places where they have acres of hard packed sand and lots of parking right on the beach. It's perfect! I only saw 2 Hobie 16's. I started sailing in CA and beach cats were everywhere. I guess I'm one of these old guys that talks about "The good old days." but I'll keep sailing until I can't step the mast anymore.
Some of all the reasons posted above, plus the rise of PWC and travel sports for kids that consume more and more of the year/weekends/finances of families. And those sports are also touted as the "path" to college.
I see a lot of H16s on Craigslist - and it seems that none of them move. Except the ones I've bought.
Competition from other sports, availability of cheap _and reliable_ powered boats and jetskis, time pressure against anything that might a "whole day" commitment. More people living in apartments. Etc.
People in Sailing Anarchy dissect this to death. It is real, the reasons are probably many so everyone's theory is right to some extent.
I do my part -- sail the wheels off the boats I have, invite friends to sail with me... try to get them into it... "sell" them a "share" on my boat to get them to sail it (and use the money to spruce up the boat)... post videos about sailing... help organize races and get-togethers when I can... post in internet forums nobody reads...
At the end of the day, big trends are big trends. This is the sport we know and love, I'll keep sailing with ... or without company.
I have wondered about this topic a lot. I believe that we love the hobby so much, that it is hard for us to figure out why more people don't get into it. I think that hobbies appear and are perfect for a particular demographic, and the appeal fades over time. Then, a new hobby appears that is right for the times and a new demographic. Rinse and repeat. However the love for any particular hobby stays imprinted onto the original demographic. (Cat sailing was big when I was a teen but I didn't sail my first Hobie until I was in my 50s)
A few hobbies are timeless and appeal to every generation: Surfing is one that comes to mind. Another is playing golf. Why have these remained "cool" while other hobbies have not?
Had to laugh at the Wayne Wong and the Racquetball comments. But I think you guys are spot on. Not enough room or time plays a big roll in why more people don't go for the space and time consuming hobby we all love.
I think that most of the people we would "expect" to be involved in this hobby are all kite surfing. A new hobby for a new generation.
shortyfox wrote: ...I was in San Diego a couple of weeks ago and played tourist and took a harbor cruise on San Diego Bay. I didn't see one beach cat. Cool air, bright sun and lots of wind. A perfect So Cal day. I went over to Mission Bay, one of my favorite places where they have acres of hard packed sand and lots of parking right on the beach. It's perfect! I only saw 2 Hobie 16's.
You were there the wrong weekend. I keep my H18 at Mission Bay (Fiesta Bay area), usually see at least a couple H16s any time I take it out. If I go to the part of Mission Bay set aside for unpowered or sub-5mph use (Sail Bay), I often see a couple of Nacras as well. It's nowhere near the heyday, but there's steady interest.
Now, if we could only get rid of the Jet-skis....
Not to get too OT here, but I now find myself in the uncomfortable position of having to defend those awful things - for a specific purpose. I've never owned any boat with a motor and had every intention of keeping it that way, but, you know, "kids". They played around a few years ago on a borrowed ski and had a lot of fun, so what am I gonna do? Force them to sit on shore when there's no wind and be miserable along with me, like I have for most of my life? So we bought a pair of old cheapies ('95 Sea-Doo GTX and SPI) on a huge trailer and I added "jet ski mechanic" to my resume.
Then I realized (having watched "Riding Giants", about Laird Hamilton and the guys who invented tow-in surfing) that I could turn to this to my advantage, and my devious plan kicked in. I'm constantly scouting and trying out new lakes, and with the TF I face all kinds of problems with regard to low/no wind (or impossible directions), difficult ramp and beaching situations (think: a beachcat with a 26' beam when the main foils are raised), etc. So I'm figuring out how to make the trailer convertible between two jet skis and one jet ski + TF, and building a 22' gantry for swapping these things around. Hope to have it functional before the end of the season. If it works out, no more getting stranded out on the water when the wind dies, or not going out because the wind is blowing perfectly 90 degrees onshore and I can't get out because of the risk of the boat drifting around while I'm climbing in and burying the foils on the bottom and standing the entire goddamn boat up on the sensors and breaking a sensor arm (again - a $500 boo-boo each time) and god knows what else (again), or not being able to get from the ramp to the beach or off of the beach because they're completely sheltered i.e. zero wind. We can't wish jet skis out of existence, so we just have to figure out how to turn them to our advantage.
[/rant]
Edited by jonathan162 on Aug 24, 2021 - 10:35 AM.
I've continued to think about (and research) this subject, and I think it's time to revive the thread, it being the off-season so a little more time is available for reflection. If you'll all bear with me, I'd like to see if we can elaborate on some of these answers, perhaps addressing them one at a time so it doesn't turn into total chaos. So, starting with:
Andinista wrote: I think that sailing was more democratic in the past, before carbon and modern sail fabrics. Not because of innovation but because of how the market evolved, I guess. The vast majority of options on the market are competitive boats, not many options for recreational sailors, that’s why we get 20 year old boats instead of spending unreasonable amounts of money.
I don't think one needs to read too deeply here in order to see "democratic" as a synonym for "affordable". So this is the argument for the sport being a victim of inevitable technological advancement: That in a sport that's inherently competitive (i.e. people with boats like to race against other people with boats) there's going to be an ongoing search for performance improvements, and before long those are going to result in the use of more exotic (and expensive) materials and techniques, which will drive up prices until the boats are largely unaffordable. This is interesting because I see a parallel to an unevolved virus that hasn't yet figured out how not to kill its host - that racing itself may be seen as a driving force toward destroying the sport's mass market appeal. Of course, tightly defined classes are intended to prevent that kind of arms race, the technological runaway that simply makes the boat too expensive. But that still can't prevent the die-hard racers from just leaving and moving to a more-challenging class and depopulating their old one, or indeed leaving cat sailing altogether in favour of a (perhaps) newer and more affordable sport, one earlier in its market curve, in which they can be more competitive for less money.
And if we can keep this thread alive, I'll try not to flood it with continued expressions of gratitude for any- and everyone's contributions.
I've been going to my local sailing club for almost 30 years. They still have summer camps with kids on Optis, they still have Hobie Waves (by far the most popular boat there) and Getaways, along with 420's, Lasers and Sunfish. All are still getting used.
That said, I see a lot of kids there and people in their late 40s +. Not many of the 20-30 somethings that make a sport "popular."
I don't know if I'm making a point here, just more of an observation.
I want to understand why.
Cat Sailing in the US has been reduced terrifically for many reasons:
great reduction of launch spots (all going to condos or municipal resources)
cost of production / purchase has skyrocketed (as has more sophisticated equipment)
stepping a mast is not very easy/fun
SUP's / kayaks have none of these barriers to entry and have taken over these markets
Skills needed require a lot more time to develop than SUP's/kayaks
MN3
I asked my son, a sophomore in college this. His answer was "Our phones are our hobby." That, and video games. One of his buddies is more of an outdoors man and we fish and boat, etc. but even in those activities it's a bit of a "short attention span theater" kind of thing. We appear to have less time, when in fact we're encouraged to dart from sound bite to sound bite giving rise to the way we now live our lives. My daughter and son-in-law (both 22) are some rare exceptions - they read books, hike exercise and lead healthy/happy lives, but don't watch news nor buy into much of that mass communication stuff. They love to sail with me.
It would be nice to have a boat that's Hobie/Getaway-esque, drawing some of the form of high-performance, wave piercing hulls with decent performance, yet easy to operate with a modest price. I think Hobie was going there, but couldn't get the market.
BTW, we still have a few out training on opti's and sunfish or lasers, but I'd estimate less than a 100 or so in the Houston/Galveston area (maybe a few more?). For such a metropolitan area, that's not enough to support a full industry, I think.
It would be nice to have a boat that's Hobie/Getaway-esque, drawing some of the form of high-performance, wave piercing hulls with decent performance, yet easy to operate with a modest price. I think Hobie was going there, but couldn't get the market.
G-Cat was such a boat, unfortunately they haven't made them for decades.
The apparent demise in the popularity of small catamarans makes for a very interesting discussion.
I started sailing beachcats in Southern California in the late seventies. They were everywhere. The most fun was informal races out to one of the offshore buoys and back and the one who came in last would buy the drinks. There were always people sailing and lots of comradery. By the time I moved away in '95
it was fading away and I don't know what it's like today.
I now live in Sarasota and with a bay 12 miles long and with sailing year-round you'd think it would be a hugely popular place for "Wet Boat" sailing. Over the years I've sailed my G-Cat over every inch of this Bay and there are hundreds of homes on the water, many with their own beach. An absolutely perfect set up! But sadly, there's only one house with a Hobie sitting out back. Go figure. There's a sailing club with a few cats but the only ones that go out frequently are the rental roto-molds and a handful of late model Nacras that seem to have their own club. On many perfect days I'll be the only catamaran out there.
Now we can go on and on about the "Good Old Days", but really, what happened?
One more thing, I keep hearing this term, "recreational boat". Aren't they all recreational? And can't they all be raced?
danielt1263 wrote: I've been going to my local sailing club for almost 30 years. They still have summer camps with kids on Optis, they still have Hobie Waves (by far the most popular boat there) and Getaways, along with 420's, Lasers and Sunfish. All are still getting used.
That said, I see a lot of kids there and people in their late 40s +. Not many of the 20-30 somethings that make a sport "popular."
The "club" part of that adds another factor entirely: Barriers to entry both financial (club dues) and psychological (one has to make a greater mental committment to a sport in order to take that extra step). The other issue is that clubs are not specific to cats, so that doesn't help us distinguish what's happened to the beachcat market relative to unimarans.
Though it is interesting that you note Waves as being popular. Do you mean among all boats, or just among the cats?
Edited by jonathan162 on Feb 07, 2023 - 11:33 AM.
G-Cat was such a boat, unfortunately they haven't made them for decades.
Just cause I love to argue with you 😎
Hans made a few 5.0 turbo G-cats about 10 years ago. He hired a professional (brett moss) to race the boat in the f16 nationals in Clearwater. Brett had zero experience on the boat and did not know it's nuances and ended up t-boning another cat. IF Brett did well, Hans "planned" to go back into production ... didn't turn out well and i think production costs would have been a huge factor in this boat getting off the ground
MN3
Though it is interesting that you note Waves as being popular. Do you mean among all boats, or just among the cats?
Among all the boats. The Sunfish are almost never used. The 420s go out but it's mostly teens who are part of the racing team.
The only boat that you have to reserve ahead of time are the Getaways because they only have two (and with 3 hour blocks of reservation time, that means a total of 4 slots per weekend.) Meanwhile, they have seven Waves and all of them get wet every weekend day. They even see a bit of action during weekdays from retirees and snow-birds.
As for your comment about cost and commitments. The club costs the same as a gym membership so I don't see that as much of a barrier to entry and the mental commitment is much less. No need to look for and buy a boat then figure out where to store it, or how to rig it. I've owned a Laser 2, a Taipan/F-16, and I just purchased a Topcat K4X. All told, I've only owned a boat for maybe 10% of the time I've been a member at the club. If anything, the club makes it harder to justify purchasing a boat.
I went to the local launch spot last weekend, and was joined by a Hobie Wave w/gennaker, and a mini-cat. Three boats! But there were 7-8 drones and probably 10-15 kayaks.
Interesting - that's not how the clubs work around here. Not that I'm really familiar with any of them (I could never join any club that would have me as a member), but I can't recall ever seeing anything but relatively modest dinghys for teaching the kids. And I'm constantly on the road hunting for new places to put in, so intruding on others' clubs is relatively rare, but happens.
(Hint: Even the snootiest, most exclusive club will drag you in and shove a beer in your hand if it has a serious group of cat sailors and you show up with a TF on the trailer.)
Edited by jonathan162 on Feb 07, 2023 - 09:46 PM.
charlescarlis wrote: I asked my son, a sophomore in college this. His answer was "Our phones are our hobby." That, and video games. One of his buddies is more of an outdoors man and we fish and boat, etc. but even in those activities it's a bit of a "short attention span theater" kind of thing. We appear to have less time, when in fact we're encouraged to dart from sound bite to sound bite giving rise to the way we now live our lives. My daughter and son-in-law (both 22) are some rare exceptions - they read books, hike exercise and lead healthy/happy lives, but don't watch news nor buy into much of that mass communication stuff. They love to sail with me.
and
danielt1263 wrote: That said, I see a lot of kids there and people in their late 40s +. Not many of the 20-30 somethings that make a sport "popular."
I've really, really, really been trying to avoid bringing this up, because the natural reaction to it is, "Well, every generation thinks it's the greatest our civilization has brought - or will ever bring - forth, and every one before and after is inferior, and you're no different, just old farts who don't 'get' us like your parents didn't 'get' you."
Problem is, I think there's some validity to it... this time. Is gaming an Olympic sport yet?
Doug Stanhope agrees: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2n34eeXWjUQ
It's interesting you brought up the Olympics because I was thinking about that. I deleted part of my post where I was talking about recent and upcoming events at my sailing club.
- The F-18 Worlds was held there with 62 boats participating.
- The Clearwater US Open (for all Olympic classes) had something like 100 boats.
- The ILCA Midwinters East Championships is coming up and another 100 boats are expected.
Meanwhile in other news, last year's H-16 words had 225 boats from 22 countries.
And I think the 2022 F-16 worlds had 90+ boats? (I'm having trouble finding the data right now.)
I'm not sure how this fits into your equation... Cat sailing isn't dead, but has become less recreational? Maybe?
I'm really focusing my curiosity on cat sailing as a greater, mass-market recreation. 225 boats in the H16 Worlds sounds to me like maybe between .01% and .1% of the total number of H16s sold (I might be overestimating the total a bit, as the numbers I've seen probably include the 14s and 18s). Regardless, a couple of hundred is pretty inconsequential noise when those kind of numbers represent what used to be the market.
As for your comment about cost and commitments
I purchased my first h16 for about $1000 (i had to pay it off in installments as i didn't have $1000)
I purchased my first h18 for $400
These boats were both over 20 years old and in usable but poor condition overall
Try finding a modern boat for under 10,000
Costs of a boat are a huge factor for attracting people into the sport - not to mention the storage factor
MN3